consumer demand decelerates as a result of high inflation and the high cost of credit. Mexico’s manufacturing sector could experience a slowdown in 2023, particularly if U.S. has increased considerably with the rise of intra-industry trade between the two countries since the early 1990s. The correlation between IP in Mexico and the U.S. IP fell 0.4 percent in December after falling 0.1 percent in November. On an unsmoothed, month-over-month basis, IP was up 0.7 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in November, while manufacturing rose 0.5 percent in both November and December. In December, the three-month-moving average of Mexico’s industrial production (IP) index-which includes manufacturing, construction, oil and gas extraction, and utilities-ticked up 0.4 percent, while the smoothed manufacturing IP index was up 0.1 percent (Chart 2 ). The goods-producing sector (manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining) increased 1.6 percent, while the service-providing sector (wholesale and retail trade, transportation and business services) grew 0.8 percent. Growth in economic activity slows in fourth quarterĪccording to preliminary estimates, Mexico’s fourth-quarter GDP rose an annualized 1.6 percent, considerably slower than 3.6 percent growth the previous quarter ( Chart 1). SOURCE: Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado: Enero de 2023 (communiqué on economic expectations, Banco de México, January 2023). NOTE: CPI refers to consumer price index. In January, the peso strengthened against the dollar, and inflation picked up steam.Ĭonsensus forecasts for 2023 Mexico growth, inflation and exchange rate The latest data available show industrial production, retail sales and employment increased while exports fell.
The consensus forecast for 2023 GDP (fourth quarter/fourth quarter), compiled by Banco de México, indicates dismal growth of only 0.7 percent ( Table 1). growth will affect Mexican manufacturing exports. Mexico’s economy is expected to slow considerably this year, as tight monetary conditions will likely weaken domestic demand, and slower U.S.
economic growth on the local manufacturing sector. In 2022, Mexico’s economy grew 3.7 percent (fourth quarter/fourth quarter) as resilient domestic demand and remaining tailwinds from reopening after COVID were able to mitigate the impact of slowing U.S. Still, growth was slightly faster than expected as GDP rose an annualized 1.6 percent compared with median expectations of 1.2 percent. Mexico’s fourth-quarter GDP growth was slower than earlier in 2022, indicating that the Mexican economy was losing momentum.
0 kommentar(er)
